European oil production, almost all from the North Sea, began to decline
in 2000. This decline will continue despite new initiatives to promote
exploitation of smaller fields.
Gas production continues to grow after a brief decline in 2007,
primarily from Norwegian waters, but total gas output is also expected
to peak soon.
Oil demand growth has been reversed by higher prices, the
2008/2009 recession and the influence of environmental concerns but
imports are growing as the North Sea declines. Imports will flatten off
within a decade due to price-led demand drops.
After a flat period gas demand growth will continue particularly in
southern Europe and for fuel substitution everywhere. Imports are thus
expected to progressively increase from all the gas producing areas
surrounding Western Europe from 2010.