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 SOUTH
EAST ASIA
Southeast Asian oil production, in the past influenced by
Indonesia’s membership of OPEC, has hovered around 2.8 mm bbls per day
for many years. As onshore output, mostly in Indonesia, declines so
offshore output in many other countries is climbing.
 A
peak is forecast for 2012/13 after which new deep water developments
will be insufficient to offset depletion in older fields.
Gas production is climbing rapidly from all offshore
areas whilst onshore output is flat.
Consumption of oil and gas in Southeast Asia has been
growing since 1998 (after the Asian crisis) whilst all the economies in
the region expanded at above the world average.
Growth will continue until 2011 when it is expected that
high oil prices will restrain oil demand. Fuel substitution should cause
gas consumption to continue its upward path.
The region is a net importer of oil. Imports will rise
each year up to 2013. However it is a net exporter of gas (mostly to
North Asia as LNG). Exports will peak in 2011 after which local demand
growth may limit some export capacity.
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