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SUPPLY
From very
small amounts of offshore production in 1996 (from South Africa) oil
output has grown substantially as onshore regions in Sudan came
onstream and, in 2008, heavy oil from Madagascar.
Offshore production from South Africa peaked in 2004 but regional
onshore output will continue to rise over the next decade.
Offshore gas production has been flat from South Africa but the
introduction of new, mainly onshore, fields in East Africa is leading to
rapid growth in production, albeit from a modest base.
DEMAND
Oil consumption is growing in the region but this will
flatten off by 2016. Gas consumption growth is significant as new fields
in Tanzania and Mozambique are exploited locally and for export to South
Africa.
Nearly all the region’s oil imports are used in South Africa. However
the rapid reduction in imports seen since 1999 is due to growing output
from Sudan.
There is no gas trade into or out of the region but South Africa, which
imports gas from Mozambique, may begin importing small amounts of gas
from Namibia in the future.
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