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SUPPLY
Oil production
in North America peaked in 1973 and had been declining slowly until
increases in output from the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico
and from the Athabascan Oil Sands in Canada began to offset onshore
depletion. Continued growth from these areas, as well as from offshore
Canada, albeit slowed in 2009 through reduced investment, will now allow
North America to increase oil output for some years.
North American gas production had been almost flat for a decade,
constrained by flat US demand. But with onshore gas production near
maximum, despite new volumes from unconventional sources, and only
modest growth in offshore output, total gas production is expected to
grow a little for the next decade.
DEMAND
North American oil demand was rising steadily after a
flat period in the earlier years of this millennium. However, demand has
now been constrained by higher prices and a rising import bill for the
USA, with falls in both 2008 and 2009. Some recovery is expected for a
period after 2010.
Gas demand will begin to increase following years of slow or zero
growth. Increases are forecast to accelerate as the US looks to gas as
an alternate energy source in the transport sector and as Canada uses
larger volumes in its expanding oil sands industry. From 2011 North
America (USA) is forecast to be importing increasing quantities of LNG
from plants throughout the world.
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