of a permanent decline in year-on-year supplies of oil have been
forecasted many times in the past although, in general, oil has been
abundant, leading to OPEC restrictive activities to conserve oil and
support the price, rather than any concerted conservation policies by
only the Arctic, very extreme deep waters, and very heavy oils remain as
the only significant providers of potential future supplies, a non-OPEC
peak is expected before 2020. These new sources will not be able to
offset rapid declines from mature areas in many of the bigger producing
many opportunities remain to exploit large gas fields in stranded
regions using new LNG technologies, floating or otherwise, and
horizontal wells into tight sands and shales. Thus steady growth in gas
output is expected at least up to 2025.
individual regions for a discussion of non-OPEC demand. Energy security
and the environment are both beginning to have a profound effect on the
longer term policies of enlightened governments.