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 NON-OPEC
Countries, which are not members of OPEC, produce
around 60% of the world’s oil but this level is slowly declining. An
earlier high occurred in 1985 when non-OPEC countries produced 70%.
 Non-OPEC oil production has been growing since 2000
primarily as new deepwater production has come onstream (along with
Caspian oil) and will reach a peak in 2011 after which permanent decline
is forecast. However Angola, with its deep water output, joined OPEC in
early 2007 and this will bring forward the non-OPEC peak.
Non-OPEC gas production is relatively more
significant, currently standing at around 83% of global gas. However,
although non-OPEC gas production is growing rapidly, its share will also
slowly decline through to 2015.
Non-OPEC oil demand is growing faster than it has done
since the 1970s as the emerging Asian economies expand and
industrialise. This growth is forcing imports higher and will continue.
After around 2013 lack of supplies will force cut-backs in oil use
through all sectors.
Gas demand is also growing rapidly throughout the
developed and emerging world and imports are growing from a relatively
low base. Gas demand growth and imports will then accelerate after 2009
as energy prices rise, with gas compensating wherever it can for the
declining availability of oil.
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