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SUPPLY
Oil production in the USA peaked in 1970 as the old
onshore fields of the southern states began to deplete. Despite new
output from Prudhoe Bay in Alaska and from shallow waters in the Gulf of
Mexico, production has never recovered and since 1996 decline has been
almost continuous.
However offshore fields located in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico
are reducing decline rates and, with this offshore output, some
short-lived recovery in total oil production is forecast up to a plateau
by 2020.
Except for coal bed methane gas production remained almost flat through
the 1990s, restrained by demand. Small increases in supply began in
2005, reaching a peak in 2009, reflecting reduced demand during the
recession. However new volumes of shale gas and deep water developments
should allow the USA to keep gas production on a plateau for many years,
despite waning prospects onshore in conventional gas fields.
DEMAND
US oil consumption was increasing up to 2005, flattened
off through 2007 and was declining in 2008 and 2009. Higher prices and
the recession have, in turn, restrained demand. Some recovery is
expected after 2010 although increases will decelerate and finally cease
by 2016 when higher prices will force conservation, especially through
the use of smaller automobiles. Imported oil volumes are increasing
anyway, posing financial and security of supply issues for the US
government.
Gas consumption is now growing steadily and will increase further as new
ways to substitute gas for oil are developed. Accordingly US gas imports
will need to increase and, besides piped gas from Canada, LNG will be
shipped into the country from many parts of the world.
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