Libya is a member of OPEC. Production collapsed after
1970 and then was restricted during the 1980s and 90s until the country
ran out of spare capacity. Sanctions led to under investment but the
country is now free to develop its oil and gas as fast as it can with
Oil output has increased since 2002, both from onshore and offshore
fields, but modest restrictions at the end of 2008 and in 2009 will lead
to a dip in onshore output. Renewed growth in 2010 is unkely to be
sustained except through addiitons of offshore condensates and NGLs.
Output should plateau for some years with decline in old fields roughly
balancing new developments.
There is considerable room for growth in Libyan gas production. LNG is
exported to Spain and the new Western Libyan Gas Project pipes both on
and offshore gas to Italy.
Removal of sanctions accompanied by growth in the Libyan
economy led to increasing oil and gas consumption. After a slight
slowing in oil consumption growth from 2006 to 2009 demand is expected
to pick up again.
Oil exports increased from 2002 to 2007 and will continue to increase
from 2010 after a dip related to modest restrictions in output in
adherence to OPEC quotas. Exports will be flat from around 2013.
Gas exports, primarily to Spain and Italy are set to grow consistently
as new projects are fully developed.